A Second Profitable Quarter, With a Buyback That Keeps Changing Its Mind
GoTo posted its second consecutive quarterly net profit in Q2 2026 - Rp252 billion (~$14.1 million), up from Rp171 billion in Q1 - and Group Adjusted EBITDA» crossed Rp1 trillion (Rp1,010 billion, ~$56.4 million) for the first time, up 137% year-on-year. CEO Hans Patuwo highlighted a specific milestone within that result: "Our Fintech business continues to do well, with its profitability now exceeding that of our On-demand Services business for the first time, reflecting the strength and balance of our ecosystem" - Fintech's Adjusted EBITDA of Rp481 billion edged past On-Demand Services' Rp464 billion this quarter, the first time that's happened.
Net revenue rose 31% year-on-year to Rp5.7 trillion, and profit attributable to owners of the parent reached Rp350 billion (~$19.5 million), more than triple Q1's Rp258 billion. But the quarter's other real headline complicates a clean read: buyback spending fell roughly 60% from Q1's pace at the same time GoTo announced a much larger treasury-share cancellation, and a new commission cap taking effect the day after this quarter closed adds a real near-term test for On-Demand Services - both are covered below.
The Prescription
GoTo should stop announcing capital-return intentions (accelerating buybacks, cancelling treasury shares) in the same release that shows the buyback itself decelerating sharply. The Company spent Rp120.5 billion (~$6.7 million) buying back shares in Q2 2026, roughly 40% of Q1's Rp201 billion pace - even as it simultaneously announced an intention to cancel over 32 billion treasury shares, a symbolically larger capital-return signal than the quarter's actual repurchase activity. A market told in Q1 that buyback pace "may accelerate further" and then shown a 40%-of-prior-quarter number three months later, dressed up with a separate, not-yet-approved cancellation announcement, has reason to discount management's forward capital-allocation language until the numbers and the announcements start moving in the same direction.
Key Financial Metrics
Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025 (three months ended June 30), derived by subtracting GoTo's Q1 2026 and Q1 2025 unaudited interim financial statements from the six-month figures in this quarter's unaudited interim consolidated financial statements. FX: IDR 17,908 = USD 1 (Bank Indonesia's reported middle/reference rate for 30 June 2026), applied throughout for comparability. GoTo's own Q2 2026 earnings call opened with a different reference rate for the same date - IDR 17,856 = USD 1 - used there solely to frame the call's own USD figures; the independently-sourced Bank Indonesia rate above is what this post uses throughout for consistency with prior quarters.
| Metric | Q2 2026 (IDR) | Q2 2026 (USD) | Q2 2025 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | Rp5,653B | ~$315.7M | Rp4,328B | ✅ +30.6% |
| Profit from Operations (real, unadjusted) | +Rp364B | ~$20.3M | +Rp22B | ✅ Up ~16.6x |
| Adjusted EBITDA | Rp1,010B (17.9% of Net Revenue) | ~$56.4M | Rp427B (9.9% of Net Revenue) | ✅ +136.5%, first time over Rp1T |
| Net Profit (for the period) | +Rp253B | ~$14.1M | -Rp375B | ✅ Second consecutive profitable quarter |
| Free Cash Flow (OCF - capex) | ~+Rp523B | ~+$29.2M | ~-Rp1,639B | ✅ Third straight positive quarter, but under half Q1's record |
| Total Cash & Equivalents (period-end) | Rp23,465B | ~$1,310.7M | Rp17,779B | ✅ +32.0% |
Profit attributable to owners of the parent was Rp350 billion (non-controlling interests booked a Rp97 billion loss for the period), more than the Rp252 billion total shown above, and more than triple Q1 2026's Rp258 billion. Free cash flow is derived the same way this site calculates it every quarter, since GoTo discloses only its own "Adjusted Free Cash Flow" measure directly: net cash provided from operating activities of +Rp662 billion less capital expenditure (intangible assets plus fixed assets) of -Rp140 billion gives +Rp523 billion (~$29.2 million) - positive for a third straight quarter, but less than half Q1 2026's record +Rp1,000 billion. Total assets grew to Rp47,477 billion (+1.5% quarter-on-quarter), total liabilities rose to Rp18,496 billion (+3.0% QoQ) - the fastest liability growth of the last two quarters - and total equity reached Rp28,981 billion (+0.6% QoQ).
Key Operational Metrics
Q2 2026, per GoTo's earnings presentation and press release
Group Annual Transacting Users» reached 71 million, up 19% year-on-year. Core GTV» accelerated sharply to Rp164 trillion (+83% YoY), up from Q1 2026's 65% growth rate - the fastest Core GTV growth this site has recorded for GoTo. On-Demand Services' GTV grew only 2% year-on-year to Rp16.7 trillion, as management explicitly prioritized margin over volume ahead of the new commission regulation (see below): delivery margin rose to 2.1% from 1.8% a year ago, and mobility margin nearly doubled to 5.0% from 3.0%. Completed orders, a volume metric less distorted by pricing choices than GTV, still grew a healthier 3% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter. Fintech Monthly Transacting Users» reached 28.8 million (+29% YoY), with transactions growing faster still at +91% YoY to 2.4 billion - continued deepening of engagement per user, not just user growth. Total loans outstanding reached Rp11.0 trillion, up 58% year-on-year.
A new regulatory constraint on the On-Demand Services segment takes effect just after this quarter's close. On July 1, 2026 - the day after Q2 ended - a new 8% cap on driver commissions came into force under Indonesia's Minister of Transportation Decree No. 532 of 2026, covering Gojek's two-wheel transportation business, which management estimates at roughly 7% of Group net revenue. None of this quarter's results reflect the cap; management said one month of implementation had kept business conditions stable, but revised full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance to reflect it regardless - lowering On-Demand Services' contribution to Rp1.4-1.5 trillion (from Rp1.7-1.8 trillion previously) while raising Fintech's to Rp1.7-1.8 trillion (from Rp1.4-1.5 trillion), leaving the Rp3.2-3.4 trillion Group total unchanged. A guidance reallocation that keeps the total identical while shifting the entire delta from the segment facing a new regulatory cap onto the segment that isn't invites the reading that the total itself may prove optimistic once Q3 shows the cap's actual bite, rather than the two offsetting moves being independently well-founded.
Three Segments: Fintech's Adjusted EBITDA Overtakes On-Demand Services
GoTo still reports the same three segments - On-Demand Services, Financial Technology, and E-Commerce. Real (unadjusted) operating profit by segment below comes from the financial statements' own segment note (derived as Q2 = H1 2026 minus Q1 2026, using each period's own filed figures); Adjusted EBITDA figures are as disclosed in the earnings materials.
On-Demand Services (Mobility & Delivery)
Net revenue (real, per the segment note) grew 19.3% year-on-year to Rp3,495 billion, and real operating profit rose 82.2% to +Rp423 billion - still the largest real-profit contributor in the Group. Adjusted EBITDA reached Rp464 billion (+41% YoY), an eighth consecutive quarter of positive Adjusted EBITDA improvement. The margin-over-volume trade this quarter (2% GTV growth against a 41% Adjusted EBITDA increase) is a deliberate choice ahead of the July 1 commission cap - management is banking real profitability now, before a regulatory change compresses the segment's economics from Q3 onward.
Financial Technology
Real operating profit reached +Rp272 billion, up from -Rp58 billion a year ago - a second consecutive quarter of real profitability after Q1 2026's first-ever positive result. Segment Adjusted EBITDA of Rp481 billion (+447% YoY) is the figure that overtook On-Demand Services' Adjusted EBITDA this quarter, and on a percentage-growth basis Fintech remains the fastest-growing segment by far: Core GTV (excluding merchant payment-gateway volume) rose 91% year-on-year to Rp157 trillion, and MTUs» grew 29% to 28.8 million. The loan book grew 58% year-on-year to Rp11.0 trillion, but the cost of that growth is showing up in the financial statements: impairment of financing and lending receivables rose 72% year-on-year in Q2 alone (to roughly Rp350 billion, from Rp203 billion) - faster than the loan book itself grew, even though the disclosed >90-days-past-due ratio held at 0.8% (see Beyond the Usual below).
E-Commerce
Real operating profit (the Tokopedia consultancy-and-support service fee, net of costs) reached +Rp214 billion, up 33.0% from +Rp161 billion a year ago, on fee revenue that grew 31.6% to Rp262 billion.
Segment Comparison
| Segment | Net Revenue YoY (real) | Adjusted EBITDA | Real Operating Profit | vs Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| On-Demand Services | ✅ +19.3% | ✅ Rp464B, +41% | ✅ +Rp423B | ✅ Up from +Rp232B |
| Financial Technology | ✅ +56.8% | ✅ Rp481B, +447% - overtook ODS | ✅ +Rp272B | ✅ Up from -Rp58B (2nd straight real profit) |
| E-Commerce | ✅ +31.6% (fee) | n/a - fee-based | ✅ +Rp214B | ✅ Up from +Rp161B |
| Group | ✅ +30.6% | ✅ Rp1,010B - first time over Rp1T | ✅ +Rp364B | ✅ Up from +Rp22B (~16.6x) |
Corporate-level costs not allocated to any segment rose to -Rp545 billion, up 74% year-on-year and up 68% from Q1 2026's -Rp325 billion - the sharpest quarter-on-quarter increase in corporate costs this site has tracked for GoTo since the post-deconsolidation reporting period began, and one management did not address on the Q2 2026 earnings call either.
Beyond the Usual
GoTo announced a plan to cancel more than 32 billion treasury shares, on top of an already-growing buyback stockpile
Alongside its results, GoTo announced its intention to cancel more than 32 billion treasury shares - approximately 2.7% of shares outstanding - pending shareholder approval at an extraordinary general meeting not yet scheduled. As of June 30, 2026, the Company held 39.78 billion of its own repurchased shares in treasury (up from 33.6 billion at the end of 2025), alongside a further 85.27 billion held by consolidated entities on the Company's behalf - a combined treasury balance of 125.05 billion shares, worth Rp5,510 billion at cost. A cancellation of the scale announced would permanently retire roughly a quarter of the Company's own repurchased shares, a genuine capital-return action distinct from simply holding bought-back stock in reserve.
The buyback pace GoTo said might accelerate instead fell by roughly 60% quarter-on-quarter
GoTo spent Rp120.5 billion (~$6.7 million) repurchasing 2.34 billion of its own shares in Q2 2026 - down sharply from Q1 2026's Rp201 billion, itself already a deceleration narrative this site has tracked quarter over quarter. This is the third different buyback-pace trajectory in three consecutive quarters (Rp53 billion in Q4 2025, Rp201 billion in Q1 2026, Rp120.5 billion in Q2 2026), with no stated framework connecting the swings to free cash flow or any other disclosed variable - the same gap this site flagged after Q1's acceleration. The pace inconsistency now sits alongside a treasury-share cancellation announcement of much larger scale than any single quarter's buyback activity, which is a stronger capital-return signal but doesn't resolve the underlying question of what actually drives the buyback's own pace quarter to quarter.
Bank Jago's disclosed fair value fell for a third straight quarter, now down 51% from its December 2025 level
The market-implied fair value of GoTo's 21.40% stake in Bank Jago - the IDX-listed price of the holding - fell to Rp2,862 billion at June 30, 2026, down from Q1 2026's Rp3,915 billion, a 26.9% single-quarter decline. Combined with Q1's 33.2% drop, the stake's disclosed fair value has now fallen 51.1% in two quarters, from Rp5,857 billion at the end of 2025. As in every prior quarter, GoTo's own equity-method carrying amount for the stake continues on an unrelated path, essentially unchanged - the balance sheet still gives a reader no visibility into what the market currently thinks this specific holding is worth.
The ecosystem-wide loan delinquency rate has now risen for five consecutive quarters, even as the >90-day NPL ratio holds flat
Total overdue balances across GoTo's ecosystem loan book (consumer and merchant lending, on- and off-balance-sheet) reached 8.2% of the Rp10.32 trillion book at June 30, 2026 - the fifth consecutive quarterly increase in this ratio, up from 7.3% a year earlier. The >90-days-past-due bucket, the figure closest to a conventional Non-Performing Loan» ratio, held at 0.8% for a fifth straight quarter, supporting management's "stable credit quality" framing on that specific measure. But the earlier-stage buckets are where the creep is concentrated - the 31-90-days-past-due bucket rose to 4.3% of the book from 3.5% a year ago - and the financial statements show impairment expense for financing and lending receivables growing faster than the loan book itself this quarter (see Financial Technology segment above). Neither trend has yet reached the >90-day bucket that defines the headline NPL claim, but both are the kind of early-stage credit signal worth watching before it does.
A new related-party revenue line kept growing, pushing related-party revenue concentration to a new high
Net revenue from PT Semangat Logistik Andalan (SLA), a subsidiary of associate Tokopedia first disclosed as a related party in Q1 2026, reached approximately Rp208 billion in Q2 2026 alone (Rp404 billion for H1 2026, versus Rp196 billion in Q1). Combined with the ongoing Tokopedia consultancy fee, total related-party net revenue reached 8.87% of H1 2026's total net revenue, up from 5.76% in H1 2025 - continuing the upward trend this site flagged last quarter, on a business relationship that predates the revenue itself (SLA already carried a related-party trade-receivable balance before it began generating disclosed revenue).
GoTo's multi-year cloud infrastructure commitment is running down as scheduled, with no changes to its terms
The Group's five-year cloud infrastructure agreement with Alibaba Cloud (Singapore) and Tencent Cloud International, which began in October 2024, carried a remaining minimum contractual commitment of USD30.4 million (Rp542 billion) as of June 30, 2026, down from USD38.7 million (Rp658 billion) three months earlier - a normal reduction as the fixed-term agreement runs its course, not a change in scope or terms. This is the kind of multi-year take-or-pay obligation that functions economically like debt but shows up only in a footnote table rather than a balance-sheet liability line - worth keeping in view given management's stated push toward consolidating over 50 AI initiatives into a single integrated program, since AI workloads are exactly what this kind of cloud capacity commitment typically supports.
A related-party credit facility from Bank Jago remained unchanged at 75% utilization this quarter
The Rp200 billion term-loan facility GoTo subsidiary GKAB signed with Bank Jago in February 2026 remained drawn at Rp150 billion as of June 30, 2026 - unchanged from Q1 2026's level, meaning the facility neither drew down further nor was repaid this quarter.
Management's Framing: A Two-Wheel Business Losing Money, and a Cold Shoulder for a Reverse Split
GoTo's Q2 2026 earnings call (July 29, 2026) added several admissions that don't show up in the presentation deck or press release on their own.
GoRide's unit economics are currently negative, and management said so plainly. Asked directly about two-wheel transportation margin sustainability, CEO Hans Patuwo said the segment's margin has "certainly deteriorated" and that its unit economics are presently negative - a materially more specific and more negative admission than the deck's own "margin over volume" framing (see Key Operational Metrics above) would suggest on its own. Management's stated fix involves adjusting "pricing, and other components, like platform fees and surge timings." GoRide represents roughly 7% of Group net revenue, per Hans.
Management's own framing confirms Q2 was the easy quarter for On-Demand Services, not the new normal. Responding to a question about the segment's resilient ~24% take rate, Hans said the 8% commission cap only took effect July 1, so "Q2 represented the last quarter at higher commission rates" - Q3 is what will actually show the cap's bite, and it was "still a bit early" to say how much. Group COO Sudhanshu Raheja added on a separate question that mobility margins will likely "compress" significantly once the cap is felt for a full quarter, even as delivery's mass-market scaling should keep growing absolute Adjusted EBITDA despite lower per-order margins. Both comments sharpen this post's own reverse-DCF conclusion (see Target Valuation Range below) that Q3, not Q2, is the real test of management's guidance.
On credit quality, management described "early signs of deterioration in the broader market" and responded by tightening, not waiting. CFO Simon Ho said the company has tightened underwriting for lower-scoring cohorts, become more selective in approvals, adjusted limit management, and raised provision coverage as "an additional buffer" - which is itself raising credit costs. He characterized delinquency rates and NPLs as still stable on the call, consistent with this post's own finding (see Beyond the Usual above) that the >90-day bucket has held at 0.8% for five straight quarters even as the earlier-stage 31-90-day bucket keeps creeping up - management's own commentary corroborates that the early-stage signal is real enough to be actively managed, not just a rounding artifact.
Hans opened the call by addressing the share price directly, in his own words: it "has been at the 50 Rupiah floor for almost three months." He put that in context against a genuinely weak broader market (Indonesia's equity market down roughly 30% year-to-date), and traced the specific decline to the 8% commission cap's May 1 announcement following an initially positive reaction to Q1's first-ever net profit - management's own view is that the current price "does not accurately reflect the true value of our company." Asked directly about a reverse stock split, management was notably cold on the idea: Citi's Ferry Wong raised it alongside the buyback question, and Simon Ho called Indonesia's precedent "a handful in 15 years," mostly involving smaller companies with negative subsequent stock performance, and noted public perception of a reverse split remains negative. That's a materially more cautious answer than silence would have been - management appears aware a reverse split carries real reputational risk in the local market, not just a mechanical one, and isn't treating it as an easy lever to escape the Rp50 floor.
Full-year guidance (Fintech raised to Rp1.7-1.8 trillion, On-Demand Services lowered to Rp1.4-1.5 trillion, Group total unchanged at Rp3.2-3.4 trillion) as covered in Key Operational Metrics above matches exactly what Hans confirmed on the call - the transcript doesn't add anything new here beyond corroborating the deck's own disclosure.
Target Valuation Range
Enterprise value ~Rp54,589B (~$3.05B), implying 2.63x EV/TTM Revenue - the lowest multiple this site has recorded for GoTo post-deconsolidation. GoTo's stock closed the quarter essentially flat, but the multiple it trades at keeps compressing anyway, because real operating results are growing faster than the share price - a pattern that has now held for two straight quarters and leaves the stock looking cheaper on fundamentals with each one, assuming the July 1 commission cap doesn't undo the segment's current margin gains.
GoTo's share count held at 1,191,144,997,220 shares issued, unchanged from Q1 2026 - the announced treasury-share cancellation (see Beyond the Usual above) had not yet been executed as of June 30, 2026. The stock closed June 2026 at Rp50, down just 2.0% from Q1 2026's Rp51 close - essentially flat for the quarter (Rp54 in April, Rp50 in May, Rp50 in June), a marked contrast to the prior two quarters' sharp declines. GoTo has not split its stock since its IPO, so Rp50 is the actual nominal quoted price. Over the trailing two years, the stock ranged from a low of Rp50 (May-June 2026) to a high of Rp85 (April 2025) - a 41.2% peak-to-trough decline - with this quarter's close sitting at the very bottom of that range.
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp50 |
| Shares outstanding | 1,191,144,997,220 |
| Market capitalization | Rp59,557B (~$3.33B) |
| Total liabilities | ~Rp18,496B |
| Less: cash and equivalents | ~Rp23,465B |
| Enterprise value | Rp54,589B (~$3.05B) |
Market cap is down slightly from ~$3.58B at Q1 2026's close, and enterprise value from ~$3.29B, as the cash balance drew down further.
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTM Net Revenue | n/a | Rp20,758B (~$1,159M) | - |
| Enterprise value | ~$3.29B | ~$3.05B | ⚠️ down |
| EV/TTM Net Revenue | 2.88x | 2.63x | ✅ down, despite a flat stock price - TTM revenue grew faster than EV |
This is now the lowest EV/Revenue multiple this site has recorded for GoTo on a post-deconsolidation basis.
DCF (base/bull/bear, illustrative only) - the scenarios turn almost entirely on the July 1, 2026 commission cap, a known, dated regulatory change whose actual financial effect this quarter's results cannot yet show. Implied prices below apply an illustrative EV/FY2026-Adjusted-EBITDA multiple to each scenario's EBITDA outcome (12x bear, ~16.5x base - matching today's implied multiple on the guidance midpoint, 20x bull), then back out market cap and per-share price using the current Rp18,496B liabilities and Rp23,465B cash - this is a sanity-check exercise, not a modeled multi-year DCF:
| Scenario | Key assumption | FY2026 Adj. EBITDA | Multiple | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (Q2 2026 close) | — actual market price, for reference | — | 2.63x EV/TTM Revenue (implied) | Rp50 |
| Bear | The 8% commission cap proves harder to absorb than guidance assumes; On-Demand's margin gains reverse in Q3; Fintech's rising early-stage delinquency migrates into the >90-day NPL bucket; the buyback stays erratic with no coherent capital-return policy. | ~Rp2.7T (below guidance) | 12x | ~Rp31 |
| Base | The cap's ~7%-of-revenue exposure lands within management's revised guidance split; Fintech holds near current profitability while On-Demand absorbs the cap through banked efficiencies; full-year Adjusted EBITDA lands within the reaffirmed Rp3.2-3.4T range. | ~Rp3.3T (guidance midpoint) | ~16.5x | ~Rp50 |
| Bull | On-Demand's margin discipline proves durable post-cap; the loan book keeps growing near 60% YoY without delinquency creep reaching NPL; the buyback and cancellation combine into a credible capital-return story; the market re-rates GoTo off its current cheapest-on-record multiple. | ~Rp3.6T (above guidance) | 20x | ~Rp65 |
The base case landing almost exactly on the current Rp50 close is itself informative: the market is currently priced for management's guidance to hold, no more and no less - meaning Q3's actual commission-cap impact, not this quarter's results, is what will move the stock toward the bear or bull case.
Reverse DCF: A stock priced at its two-year low, at the cheapest EV/Revenue multiple this site has recorded for GoTo, against a quarter where real operating profit rose roughly 16.6-fold year-on-year and Adjusted EBITDA crossed Rp1 trillion for the first time, implies the market is pricing in a meaningful probability that the July 1 commission cap - a known, quantifiable regulatory change - erodes more of On-Demand Services' newly-won margin than management's guidance reallocation assumes. Q3 2026's results, the first to actually reflect the cap, will be the real test of whether that market skepticism or management's guidance is closer to right.
GoTo's 2Q 2026 Results presentation and press release (July 2026), GoTo's own unaudited interim consolidated financial statements as of and for the six-month period ended 30 June 2026, and the transcript of GoTo's Q2 2026 earnings call (July 29, 2026).