Recursive Gains https://recursivegains.com Welcome to the archive. You can browse the full archive of Recursive Gains articles by month. en-us Profit Grew 49% This Half - So Why Did the Stock Just Hit a New Two-Year Low? https://recursivegains.com/analysis/arto/2026-06/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/arto/2026-06/ Sat, 01 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT Bank Jago's H1 2026 profit rose 49% YoY, but the stock hit a fresh two-year low as CAR kept falling and one related-party loan drove Sharia growth. Superbank's Stock Has Lost Almost Half Its Value Since Its IPO. Insiders Are Still Buying. https://recursivegains.com/analysis/superbank/2026-06/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/superbank/2026-06/ Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT Superbank's Q2 2026 net income rose 415% QoQ, but its IDX stock fell 43% since its December IPO close - insiders bought anyway. Cost of Credit Was Cut Nearly in Half This Quarter - So Why Did New Bookings Keep Shrinking? https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bfin/2026-06/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bfin/2026-06/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT BFI Finance's H1 2026 profit rose 8.7% YoY as Cost of Credit halved quarter-over-quarter, even as new bookings shrank and Others' profit fell 40%. GoTo's Profit Nearly Tripled and Adjusted EBITDA Topped Rp1 Trillion - So Why Did the Buyback Slow 60%? https://recursivegains.com/analysis/goto/2026-06/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/goto/2026-06/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT GoTo's Q2 2026: Adjusted EBITDA topped Rp1 trillion for the first time, but the buyback slowed 60% and GoRide's unit economics turned negative. Book Value Just Fell Below Book - Is the Market Pricing in a Credit Crisis That Isn't in the Numbers? https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bfin/2025-12/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bfin/2025-12/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT BFI's FY2025 net income rose just 1.1% YoY as Cost of Credit climbed to 4.3%. Shares hit Rp700, pushing P/B below 1x for the first time since 2020. The Quarter a Wrong Answer on the Call Actually Mattered https://recursivegains.com/analysis/groww/2026-06/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/groww/2026-06/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT Groww's Q1 FY27 PAT rose 94% YoY, but its CFO misstated where Fisdom and Groww AMC's revenue sits on the P&L - the third straight quarter of this pattern. Paytm's Highest-Ever Quarterly Profit Comes Right as Its Government Subsidy Runs Out https://recursivegains.com/analysis/paytm/2026-06/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/paytm/2026-06/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT Paytm posted record Q1 FY27 EBITDA of Rs 203 crore, up 182% YoY, its first full quarter without the PIDF subsidy. Why Is Profit Growth Grinding to a Halt While Corporate Loans Boom 14%? https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bbca/2026-06/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bbca/2026-06/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT BCA's H1 2026 profit grew just 1.8% YoY as NIM compressed and vehicle lending kept collapsing, even as Corporate loans grew 13.6%. Stock hit a new low. Segment Profit Hit a Record Rs. 849 Crore - So Why Did Net Income Fall 47%? https://recursivegains.com/analysis/eternal/2026-06/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/eternal/2026-06/ Wed, 29 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT Eternal's Q1 FY27: segment profit hit a record Rs. 849 crore, but net income fell 47% QoQ as the effective tax rate nearly tripled. Finally, the Segments - And Lending Is the Least Profitable One https://recursivegains.com/analysis/jiofin/2026-06/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/jiofin/2026-06/ Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT JFS's first-ever segment disclosure shows Investing still drives 91.5% of profit; promoters paid a premium to raise their stake to 49.13%. Mandiri's Revenue Fell 13% This Quarter - So Why Did Profit Jump 33%? https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bmri/2026-06/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bmri/2026-06/ Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT BMRI H1 2026: profit rose 24% as BSI's deconsolidation fully hit Q2 revenue, CAR fell sharply, and shares hit a two-year low. Free Shipping Got Cut in Brazil - and Operating Margin Nearly Halved https://recursivegains.com/analysis/meli/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/meli/2026-03/ Wed, 27 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT MELI Q1 2026 10-Q: revenue +49%, but operating income -19.9% and margin nearly halved (12.9% to 6.9%) on a Brazil shipping-subsidy cut. Nu Says Revenue Crossed $5 Billion. Its Own Filed Statements Say $347 Million Less. https://recursivegains.com/analysis/nu/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/nu/2026-03/ Wed, 27 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Nu's Q1 2026: $5.3B managerial revenue vs. $4.97B IFRS revenue, 41% YoY net income growth, and Mexico's break-even milestone, scrutinized. Sea's Revenue Grew 47%. Its Adjusted EBITDA Grew Just 9% https://recursivegains.com/analysis/se/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/se/2026-03/ Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Sea's Q1 2026: revenue up 46.6%, but Adjusted EBITDA grew just 9.3% and Shopee's own segment profit fell. The stock closed below the DCF's bear case. SeaBank's Best Quarter Yet Comes With a Familiar Catch https://recursivegains.com/analysis/seabank/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/seabank/2026-03/ Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT SeaBank's Q1 2026 net income nearly quadrupled YoY to Rp375.6bn, ROE hit 24% - its strongest quarter in this series yet. Paytm's First-Ever Profitable Fiscal Year Arrives With Its Own Bank in Wind-Down https://recursivegains.com/analysis/paytm/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/paytm/2026-03/ Thu, 21 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Paytm posted its first profitable fiscal year (Rs 552 crore) right as RBI cancelled Paytm Payments Bank's license post year-end. Net Income Rose for a Third Straight Quarter - So Why Did the Full Fiscal Year Fall 31%? https://recursivegains.com/analysis/eternal/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/eternal/2026-03/ Wed, 20 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Eternal's Q4 FY26: net income rose a third straight quarter, but full-year profit fell 31% as finance costs and depreciation outran segment gains. The Quarter the Scoreboard Quietly Changed https://recursivegains.com/analysis/groww/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/groww/2026-03/ Wed, 20 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Groww's Q4 FY26 PAT rose 122% YoY, but it retired Adjusted EBITDA and rebased market-share math the same quarter - what changed and what didn't. A New Rs3,161 Crore Charge Appeared, and the CFO Wouldn't Say What It Was For https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bhartiartl/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bhartiartl/2026-03/ Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Airtel profit fell 33.5% YoY on a new regulatory charge the CFO wouldn't detail, even as EBITDA hit a fresh margin high. Instamart's Full-Year Loss Grew 62%. Its Own Breakeven Deadline Is Due Starting Next Quarter. https://recursivegains.com/analysis/swiggy/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/swiggy/2026-03/ Mon, 11 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Swiggy's FY26 - Instamart's annual loss grew 62% even as Q4 alone improved, Food Delivery hit a record profit, and the stock fell 52% off its peak. Profit Fell 12.6% While Revenue Grew - What's Actually Wrong Here? https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bfin/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bfin/2026-03/ Sun, 10 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT BFI Finance's Q1 2026 net income fell 12.6% YoY as Cost of Credit nearly doubled to 5.7%, even as revenue and NPF stayed broadly under control. GoTo's Real Operating Income Hit a Record Rp418 Billion. Its Stock Fell 20% Anyway. https://recursivegains.com/analysis/goto/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/goto/2026-03/ Fri, 08 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT GoTo posted its first-ever net profit and a record real operating income in Q1 2026 - yet its stock fell 20% and hit its cheapest multiple on record. Every Guidance Metric Was Beaten This Quarter. The Stock Just Hit a Two-Year Low Anyway. https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bbri/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bbri/2026-03/ Wed, 06 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT BRI's Q1 2026 beat every guidance target, but Micro segment stress and a fresh credit overlay sit behind a stock price at a two-year low. Did a $1.2 Billion Voucher Bill Just Wipe Out a Quarter's Profits? https://recursivegains.com/analysis/cpng/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/cpng/2026-03/ Wed, 06 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Coupang's Q1 2026: revenue up 8% to $8.5B, but the $1.2B breach-voucher program crushed Adjusted EBITDA 92% to $29M and drove a $266M net loss. Profit Grew 42% This Quarter - So Why Did the Stock Just Crash 33%? https://recursivegains.com/analysis/arto/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/arto/2026-03/ Wed, 06 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Bank Jago's Q1 2026 profit rose 42% YoY and every ratio improved, but the stock crashed 33% in a single quarter to a new series-low valuation. Why Did Every Region That Collapsed in Q3 Suddenly Surge in Q4? https://recursivegains.com/analysis/amrt/2025-12/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/amrt/2025-12/ Wed, 06 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT AMRT's FY2025 profit grew 8.4% as all three regions reversed Q3's simultaneous decline in a strong standalone Q4. Superbank Turned Its First Real Profit as a Public Company - With 84% of Its Capital Still Sitting Idle https://recursivegains.com/analysis/superbank/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/superbank/2026-03/ Wed, 06 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Superbank's Q1 2026 net income jumped 300x YoY to Rp78.2bn, but CAR sits at 84% - its post-IPO capital still barely being deployed. The Balance Sheet That Tripled Its Leverage in One Year https://recursivegains.com/analysis/jiofin/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/jiofin/2026-03/ Wed, 06 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT JFS's FY26 profit fell 3.2% despite revenue nearly doubling, as finance costs jumped 97x funding a 156% loan-book expansion. It Lost a Quarter of the Group's Balance Sheet Overnight - So Why Did Profit Still Jump 17%? https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bmri/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/bmri/2026-03/ Wed, 06 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT BMRI Q1 2026: profit rose 16.6% YoY, but BSI's deconsolidation from the group makes most YoY comparisons non-like-for-like this quarter. Why Did Profit Fall Only 20% When Operating Income Cratered 64%? https://recursivegains.com/analysis/baba/2026-03/ https://recursivegains.com/analysis/baba/2026-03/ Wed, 06 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Alibaba's FY2026 operating income fell 64% in a quick-commerce subsidy war; investment gains masked it, and free cash flow turned negative.